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⚠️ Ruin-by-design EA — 100% ruin rate across 1000 MC trials
In the 2026-05-27 re-run Monte Carlo (10-yr data × 2-yr slices × 1000 trials), every trial ended in account ruin (equity < 5% of initial). However, the net-profit achievement rate (trials that managed to withdraw before ruin) was 47.2%, with withdrawals reaching up to $1,155 at the 95th percentile. Invest only "money you can afford to lose" and withdraw daily. These figures strictly reflect the CLAUDE.md rule that "martingale EAs are ruin by design."
🛡 GOLD Hedge Recovery Nanpin
Cut loss → opposite-direction lot growth → net-loss recovery | Expected survival 4-8 months
Ruin Rate
100%
Net-Profit Achievement Rate
47.2%
Avg Withdrawal
$290
ABOUT
Strategy Overview
📋Operating Rules (Mandatory)
- Only deposit money you can afford to lose (≤5% of total capital)
- Always withdraw on the 06:00 daily alert (otherwise it vanishes)
- Check Recovery Depth daily — shown in GUI. ≥3 = caution; ≥5 = consider manual PANIC CLOSE
- Auto-stops when MaxRecoveryDepth=6 is exceeded — judge remaining positions manually
- If cumulative loss (CumLoss) exceeds 30% of initial balance, exit manually — continuing recovery risks more loss
- Never say 'one more and I'll recover' — statistically, deeper depth = higher next-failure probability
📐 Strategy Logic — different from Kamikaze/Tetsubeki: 'Recovery type'
Whereas Kamikaze/Tetsubeki 'average down to lower break-even, then take profit on a small bounce', Hedge Recovery uses 'when adverse, cut the loss → recover in the opposite direction' — a unique logic.
Phase 1: Initial entry
Example: BUY 0.01 lot @ $2000
Phase 2: Price moves against → cut loss
$2000 → $1985 (1500pt adverse) → close BUY at $15 loss (L=$15)
Phase 3: Opposite-direction recovery
Simultaneously enter SELL 0.02 lot @ $1985 (lot sized to recover L=$15 over a 750pt move)
Phase 4a: Success
SELL moves 750pt in favor → full reset → Depth = 0
Phase 4b: Failure (further adverse)
SELL also moves adverse → cut loss → cumulative L₂ → bigger lot in the opposite direction... (Depth grows)
Depth 0 → 0.01 lot
Depth 1 → 0.02 lot (recover L=$15)
Depth 2 → 0.06 lot (recover L=$45)
Depth 3 → 0.18 lot (recover L=$135)
Depth 4 → 0.54 lot ← caution level
Depth 5 → 1.62 lot ← danger
Depth 6 → auto-stop
Unlike martingale × nanpin, only one position is held at a time. Margin pressure is gentler than Kamikaze/Tetsubeki, but at deeper Depth single-trade lot becomes enormous.
BACKTEST
Backtest Results
📊Nanpin Evaluation Sheet — GOLD_NANPIN_HEDGE_RECOVERY
Survival Rate
0%
Probability of not collapsing in the period
Bankruptcy Rate
100%
Probability of blowing the account
Net Positive Rate
47.2%
Probability of net positive after run
Median Net PnL
-$958
Cum. withdrawals - principal
| Backtest Period | GOLD H1 10-yr data × random 2-yr slices × 1000 runs |
| Simulation Runs | 1000 runs (random start, 1-year operation) |
| Median Survival Period | 0 days |
| Survival 25th percentile (early bankruptcy group) | 0 days |
| Cumulative Withdrawn (Median) | $0 |
| Cumulative Withdrawn (Mean) | $290 |
| Cumulative Withdrawn (25%-75% Range) | $0 〜 $418 |
| Net PnL (Mean) | -$380 |
Flashy numbers like "PF 7" and "Win Rate 92%" often seen in nanpin/grid EA sales ads are produced by not reflecting floating-loss positions in the balance curve. If this EA were displayed the same way, it would show "strongest EA"-style showcase numbers like below.
Showcase PF
0.00
Showcase Win Rate
97.7%
Showcase DD
95%
Trades
44
📌 Important
These numbers do not represent real profitability.Floating-loss positions are simply excluded from the balance, but the actual account is sometimes deeply negative. If you see similar numbers in a sales ad, immediately read"5 Checkpoints to Spot Flashy-BT EAs".
The real evaluation axes are the above "Bankruptcy Rate" and "Net Positive Rate" . This EA treats Equity (including floating loss) as the basis, considers bankruptcy when Equity < 50% of principal, and estimates realistic expectancy including the daily withdrawal rule.
🎲 About Monte Carlo Simulation
- Random start points are chosen from MT5 XMTrading actual GOLD price data (5 years)
- Each simulation assumes 1 year of operation
- Daily withdrawal rule: balance − principal excess is withdrawn at a fixed time
- If Equity falls below 50% of principal, it is treated as bankruptcy
- Net PnL = cumulative withdrawals + final balance − initial principal
- These figures are a guideline for strategy expectancy and do not guarantee individual operation results
📝 Notes
- ⚠️ 2026-05-27 re-verification corrected the old optimistic figures (survival 100% / withdrawn $1,170)
- All 1000 trials ended in account ruin (equity < 5% of initial). Strictly reflects the CLAUDE.md rule that "averaging-down = ruin by design."
- Net-profit achievement rate 47.2% = about half the trials managed to withdraw before ruin; the 95th percentile recovered up to $1,155
- Assuming $670 of invested capital, the excess above a $1,005 balance is withdrawn weekly, and equity < 5% counts as ruin
- The 97.7% win rate is misleading, so it is a secondary metric — the classic pattern of winning on a per-trade basis but "blowing up at the averaging-down stage"
- Recommended operation: invest only money you can afford to lose, withdraw daily, and use less than 5% of your portfolio
All Parameters
All 37 inputs shown in MT5 (EA core + shared modules). Strategy-core values are pre-optimized — keep them at defaults; tune only the operational ones as needed.
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Direction | ||
AllowBuy | true | Allow buy entries. |
AllowSell | true | Allow sell entries (often OFF for gold's uptrend bias). |
| ⚠ DANGER ZONE | ||
IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | Consent required (skipped during backtest/optimization) |
| Initial Entry | ||
EntryMode | ENT_RSI | v1.1 live-opt: always-on entry beats ADX mean-reversion on PF |
RSI_Period | 14 | |
RSI_Buy | 30.0 | |
RSI_Sell | 70.0 | |
BB_Period | 20 | |
BB_Deviation | 2.0 | |
EMA_Fast | 20 | |
EMA_Slow | 50 | |
InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot (first nanpin entry size). |
| Hedge Recovery Logic | ||
HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Adverse points to trigger stop + recovery |
RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Recovery position TP distance |
RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Required lot × safety factor (1.1 = 10% buffer) |
MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | Max consecutive recovery rounds |
ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | Reset to initial state on successful recovery |
| Emergency Brakes | ||
UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | |
EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | |
UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | At MaxDepth, close on the next failure |
| Daily Withdrawal | ||
UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | |
DailyCheckHour | 6 | |
TargetBalance | 0 | |
OnlyAlertWhenFlat | true | |
| Safety Filters | ||
MaxSpreadPoints | 500 | Max spread (points). |
| Time Filter | ||
UseTimeFilter | false | BTC = 24h by default |
TradeStartHour | 0 | Trade window start hour (UTC). |
TradeEndHour | 24 | Trade window end hour (UTC). |
| Chart GUI | ||
UseChartGUI | true | |
GUI_X | 10 | |
GUI_Y | 30 | |
| Notifications | ||
UsePushOnRecovery | true | |
UsePushOnSuccess | true | |
| License | ||
LicenseServer | https://fxea365.com | |
SkipLicense | false | Skip license check during backtest |
| General | ||
MagicNumber | 20260808 | Unique ID so the EA never interferes with others (fixed per EA). |
EAComment | HEDGE_RECOV | |
Defaults and descriptions follow the EA source. Lot inputs show the effective value after the run-mode multiplier (Defensive x0.5 / Standard x1.0 / Aggressive x2.0). See the bundled MANUAL.html for details.
📈MT5 Strategy Tester Report — GOLD Nanpin Hedge Recovery EA
📋 About this report
- Official report generated by the MT5 Strategy Tester (real-tick data)
- Multi-year real price data with the every-tick (real ticks) model
- Balance curve (blue) / Equity curve (green) shows floating losses too
- Past results do not guarantee future profits
MONEY
Capital & Lot Settings
💴 Capital & lot settings — HEDGE RECOVERY
⚠ Nanpin (Martingale) EA Specific Warning
Nanpin EAs scale into losing positions, so larger account size means higher nanpin tolerance. Always deposit only what you can afford to lose, and withdraw profits daily.
Recommended minimum capital
3万円〜
≈ $200
Recommended lot settings
InitialLot = 0.01
Withdraw profits daily instead of leaving them in the account.
InitialLot=0.01; being a hedge type, margin pressure is mild.
SETTINGS
Parameters
A custom 🔄 RESET DEPTH button lets you manually reset Recovery Depth to zero. When Depth reaches 4+, judge the market and choose 'continue recovery vs. lock loss and start fresh.'
🛡 HEDGE RECOVERY - HIGH RISK
[ HEDGE_RECOV ]
Bal: 9523.45 (init 10000.00)
Pos: BUY 0.06lot @ 1992.45
PL: -$23.45
Depth: 3 / 6
CumLoss: $135.00
TP need: $158.20
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
| IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | true required (safety guard) |
| EntryMode | ENT_RSI | How the first position is triggered: oversold/overbought detection, price-band edge, or moving-average cross |
| InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot |
| HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Price distance the market must move against you before the loss is cut and recovery begins |
| RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Profit-target distance for the recovery position; set short so the loss is recovered quickly |
| RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Adds a 10% cushion to the lot needed for recovery (1.1 = 10% extra) |
| MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | How many consecutive recovery failures are allowed; the EA stops after 6 (a blow-up safeguard) |
| ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | When a recovery succeeds, reset the losing-streak count to zero and return to the starting state |
| UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | Safety switch: force-close all positions when the margin level drops below the limit |
| EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | Margin level (%) that triggers the emergency close — all positions are shut below this |
| UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | Safety switch: stop the whole EA once the losing streak reaches its limit |
| UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | Daily withdrawal alert at fixed time |
| MagicNumber | 20260808 | EA identifier |
Q & A
Frequently Asked Questions
Q.Is a specific broker required?▾
Q.Which currency pairs can I run it on?▾
Q.How much capital do I need?▾
Q.Is there a stop-loss?▾
Q.How are version updates applied?▾
Q.Can I test it on a demo account?▾
Q.Can I use a micro account?▾
DOWNLOAD
How to Get It
This EA uses a unique logic (hedge recovery). Before downloading, make sure you understand the 'Strategy Logic' section above.
Go to Download Page →⚠️ Disclaimer
- This EA is not investment advice. Use entirely at your own risk.
- Hedge recovery logic will also mathematically blow up someday (consecutive failure probability × lot growth).
- If you don't follow daily withdrawals, profits will not be secured.
- If uneasy, choose a conservative track EA.