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⚠️ 以爆仓为前提的EA — 1000次试验 MC 爆仓率 100%
在 2026-05-27 的重新蒙特卡洛(10年数据 × 2年切片 × 1000次试验)中，所有试验账户均爆仓(Equity<初始5%)。不过净利达成率（爆仓前能够出金的试验）为 47.2%，在 95%ile 有出金至 $1,155 的例子。仅投入「即使失去也没问题的金额」，建议每日出金。这是严格反映CLAUDE.md规定的「加仓型EA以爆仓为前提」的数值。
🛡 GOLD Hedge Recovery Nanpin
Cut loss → opposite-direction lot growth → net-loss recovery | Expected survival 4-8 months
爆仓率
100%
净利达成率
47.2%
平均出金
$290
ABOUT
策略概要
📋Operating Rules (Mandatory)
- Only deposit money you can afford to lose (≤5% of total capital)
- Always withdraw on the 06:00 daily alert (otherwise it vanishes)
- Check Recovery Depth daily — shown in GUI. ≥3 = caution; ≥5 = consider manual PANIC CLOSE
- Auto-stops when MaxRecoveryDepth=6 is exceeded — judge remaining positions manually
- If cumulative loss (CumLoss) exceeds 30% of initial balance, exit manually — continuing recovery risks more loss
- Never say 'one more and I'll recover' — statistically, deeper depth = higher next-failure probability
📐 Strategy Logic — different from Kamikaze/Tetsubeki: 'Recovery type'
Whereas Kamikaze/Tetsubeki 'average down to lower break-even, then take profit on a small bounce', Hedge Recovery uses 'when adverse, cut the loss → recover in the opposite direction' — a unique logic.
Phase 1: Initial entry
Example: BUY 0.01 lot @ $2000
Phase 2: Price moves against → cut loss
$2000 → $1985 (1500pt adverse) → close BUY at $15 loss (L=$15)
Phase 3: Opposite-direction recovery
Simultaneously enter SELL 0.02 lot @ $1985 (lot sized to recover L=$15 over a 750pt move)
Phase 4a: Success
SELL moves 750pt in favor → full reset → Depth = 0
Phase 4b: Failure (further adverse)
SELL also moves adverse → cut loss → cumulative L₂ → bigger lot in the opposite direction... (Depth grows)
Depth 0 → 0.01 lot
Depth 1 → 0.02 lot (recover L=$15)
Depth 2 → 0.06 lot (recover L=$45)
Depth 3 → 0.18 lot (recover L=$135)
Depth 4 → 0.54 lot ← caution level
Depth 5 → 1.62 lot ← danger
Depth 6 → auto-stop
Unlike martingale × nanpin, only one position is held at a time. Margin pressure is gentler than Kamikaze/Tetsubeki, but at deeper Depth single-trade lot becomes enormous.
BACKTEST
回测结果
📊马丁加仓评估表 — GOLD_NANPIN_HEDGE_RECOVERY
生存率
0%
期间内不破产的概率
破产率
100%
账户爆仓概率
净收益达成率
47.2%
运行后净正收益概率
净损益中位数
-¥6,898
累计出金 - 本金
| 回测期间 | GOLD H1 10年数据 × 随机2年切片 × 1000次 |
| 模拟次数 | 1000 次（随机起点1年运行） |
| 生存期中位数 | 0 天 |
| 生存期 25%分位（早期爆仓组） | 0 天 |
| 累计出金中位数 | ¥0 |
| 累计出金平均值 | ¥2,088 |
| 累计出金 25%-75%区间 | ¥0 〜 ¥3,010 |
| 净损益平均值 | -¥2,736 |
马丁/网格类EA销售广告中常见的"PF 7"、"胜率92%"等炫目数值，是通过不将浮亏头寸反映在余额曲线中的展示方法制造的。本EA若用同样方法展示，也会呈现如下"最强EA"风格的炫目数值。
炫目PF
0.00
炫目胜率
97.7%
炫目DD
95%
交易数
44
📌 重要
此数值不代表实际收益。只是浮亏头寸未计入余额，实际账户时常大幅亏损。在销售广告中看到类似数值时，请立即阅读"识破炫目BT EA的5个检查点"。
真正的评估轴是上方的"破产率"和"净收益达成率" 。本EA以含浮亏的Equity为基准，Equity < 本金50%视为破产，并加入每日出金规则，估算现实期望值。
🎲 关于蒙特卡洛模拟
- 从MT5 XMTrading实际GOLD价格数据（5年）随机选择起点
- 每次模拟假设运行1年
- 每日定时按余额 − 本金的超额部分出金的规则
- Equity低于本金50%视为破产
- 净损益 = 累计出金 + 最终余额 − 投入本金
- 本数值是策略期望值的参考，不保证个别运行的损益
📝 补充
- ⚠️ 2026-05-27 重新验证修正了旧的乐观值(survival 100%/withdrawn$1170)
- 全部1000次试验均账户爆仓(Equity<初始5%)。严格反映CLAUDE.md规定的「加仓=以爆仓为前提」
- 净利达成率 47.2% = 在爆仓前能够出金的试验约占半数，在95%ile有回收至$1,155的例子
- 设定投入本金$670，余额>$1,005时将超出部分每周出金，Equity<5%视为爆仓
- 胜率97.7%易引起误解故作为副指标 — 按交易单位是盈利的但属于「在加仓阶段爆仓」的典型模式
- 建议运用: 仅投入即使失去也没问题的金额，建议每日出金，用占投资组合<5%的资金
All Parameters
All 37 inputs shown in MT5 (EA core + shared modules). Strategy-core values are pre-optimized — keep them at defaults; tune only the operational ones as needed.
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Direction | ||
AllowBuy | true | Allow buy entries. |
AllowSell | true | Allow sell entries (often OFF for gold's uptrend bias). |
| ⚠ DANGER ZONE | ||
IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | Consent required (skipped during backtest/optimization) |
| Initial Entry | ||
EntryMode | ENT_RSI | v1.1 live-opt: always-on entry beats ADX mean-reversion on PF |
RSI_Period | 14 | |
RSI_Buy | 30.0 | |
RSI_Sell | 70.0 | |
BB_Period | 20 | |
BB_Deviation | 2.0 | |
EMA_Fast | 20 | |
EMA_Slow | 50 | |
InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot (first nanpin entry size). |
| Hedge Recovery Logic | ||
HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Adverse points to trigger stop + recovery |
RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Recovery position TP distance |
RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Required lot × safety factor (1.1 = 10% buffer) |
MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | Max consecutive recovery rounds |
ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | Reset to initial state on successful recovery |
| Emergency Brakes | ||
UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | |
EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | |
UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | At MaxDepth, close on the next failure |
| Daily Withdrawal | ||
UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | |
DailyCheckHour | 6 | |
TargetBalance | 0 | |
OnlyAlertWhenFlat | true | |
| Safety Filters | ||
MaxSpreadPoints | 500 | Max spread (points). |
| Time Filter | ||
UseTimeFilter | false | BTC = 24h by default |
TradeStartHour | 0 | Trade window start hour (UTC). |
TradeEndHour | 24 | Trade window end hour (UTC). |
| Chart GUI | ||
UseChartGUI | true | |
GUI_X | 10 | |
GUI_Y | 30 | |
| Notifications | ||
UsePushOnRecovery | true | |
UsePushOnSuccess | true | |
| License | ||
LicenseServer | https://fxea365.com | |
SkipLicense | false | Skip license check during backtest |
| General | ||
MagicNumber | 20260808 | Unique ID so the EA never interferes with others (fixed per EA). |
EAComment | HEDGE_RECOV | |
Defaults and descriptions follow the EA source. Lot inputs show the effective value after the run-mode multiplier (Defensive x0.5 / Standard x1.0 / Aggressive x2.0). See the bundled MANUAL.html for details.
📈MT5 Strategy Tester 报告 — GOLD Nanpin Hedge Recovery EA
📋 关于此报告
- MT5 策略测试器(XMTrading-MT5 服务器)生成的官方报告
- 5-10 年实际价格数据 + 全 tick(99.9% 精度)模型
- 余额曲线(蓝)/ 净值曲线(绿)可视化浮动损失
- 过去结果不保证未来利润
MONEY
资金与手数设置
💴 Capital & lot settings — HEDGE RECOVERY
⚠ 马丁加仓EA的特别警告
马丁加仓EA会在浮亏时加仓，因此账户规模越大，加仓承受能力越强。请只存入您可承受损失的资金，并每日提取利润。
Recommended minimum capital
3万円〜
≈ $200
Recommended lot settings
InitialLot = 0.01
Withdraw profits daily instead of leaving them in the account.
InitialLot=0.01，因为是对冲型，保证金压力较缓和。
SETTINGS
参数
A custom 🔄 RESET DEPTH button lets you manually reset Recovery Depth to zero. When Depth reaches 4+, judge the market and choose 'continue recovery vs. lock loss and start fresh.'
🛡 HEDGE RECOVERY - HIGH RISK
[ HEDGE_RECOV ]
Bal: 9523.45 (init 10000.00)
Pos: BUY 0.06lot @ 1992.45
PL: -$23.45
Depth: 3 / 6
CumLoss: $135.00
TP need: $158.20
| 参数 | 默认值 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|
| IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | true required (safety guard) |
| EntryMode | ENT_RSI | How the first position is triggered: oversold/overbought detection, price-band edge, or moving-average cross |
| InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot |
| HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Price distance the market must move against you before the loss is cut and recovery begins |
| RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Profit-target distance for the recovery position; set short so the loss is recovered quickly |
| RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Adds a 10% cushion to the lot needed for recovery (1.1 = 10% extra) |
| MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | How many consecutive recovery failures are allowed; the EA stops after 6 (a blow-up safeguard) |
| ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | When a recovery succeeds, reset the losing-streak count to zero and return to the starting state |
| UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | Safety switch: force-close all positions when the margin level drops below the limit |
| EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | Margin level (%) that triggers the emergency close — all positions are shut below this |
| UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | Safety switch: stop the whole EA once the losing streak reaches its limit |
| UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | Daily withdrawal alert at fixed time |
| MagicNumber | 20260808 | EA identifier |
Q & A
常见问题
Q.有指定的券商吗？▾
Q.可以在哪些货币对上运行？▾
Q.需要多少资金？▾
Q.有止损(SL)吗？▾
Q.版本升级如何反映？▾
Q.可以在模拟账户测试吗？▾
Q.微型账户可以使用吗？▾
DOWNLOAD
获取方式
This EA uses a unique logic (hedge recovery). Before downloading, make sure you understand the 'Strategy Logic' section above.
注册会员下载 →⚠️ Disclaimer
- This EA is not investment advice. Use entirely at your own risk.
- Hedge recovery logic will also mathematically blow up someday (consecutive failure probability × lot growth).
- If you don't follow daily withdrawals, profits will not be secured.
- If uneasy, choose a conservative track EA.