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⚠️ 破産前提EA — 1000試行 MC で破綻率 100%
2026-05-27 の再モンテカルロ(10年データ × 2年スライス × 1000試行)で、すべての試行で口座が破綻(Equity<初期5%)しました。 ただし純益達成率（破綻前に出金できた試行）は 47.2%、95%ile で $1,155 まで出金例があります。「失っても問題ない金額」のみ投入し、毎日出金推奨。CLAUDE.md 規定の「ナンピンEAは破産前提」を厳密に反映した値です。
🛡 GOLD Hedge Recovery Nanpin
Cut loss → opposite-direction lot growth → net-loss recovery | Expected survival 4-8 months
破産率
100%
純益達成率
47.2%
平均出金
$290
ABOUT
策略概要
📋Operating Rules (Mandatory)
- Only deposit money you can afford to lose (≤5% of total capital)
- Always withdraw on the 06:00 daily alert (otherwise it vanishes)
- Check Recovery Depth daily — shown in GUI. ≥3 = caution; ≥5 = consider manual PANIC CLOSE
- Auto-stops when MaxRecoveryDepth=6 is exceeded — judge remaining positions manually
- If cumulative loss (CumLoss) exceeds 30% of initial balance, exit manually — continuing recovery risks more loss
- Never say 'one more and I'll recover' — statistically, deeper depth = higher next-failure probability
📐 Strategy Logic — different from Kamikaze/Tetsubeki: 'Recovery type'
Whereas Kamikaze/Tetsubeki 'average down to lower break-even, then take profit on a small bounce', Hedge Recovery uses 'when adverse, cut the loss → recover in the opposite direction' — a unique logic.
Phase 1: Initial entry
Example: BUY 0.01 lot @ $2000
Phase 2: Price moves against → cut loss
$2000 → $1985 (1500pt adverse) → close BUY at $15 loss (L=$15)
Phase 3: Opposite-direction recovery
Simultaneously enter SELL 0.02 lot @ $1985 (lot sized to recover L=$15 over a 750pt move)
Phase 4a: Success
SELL moves 750pt in favor → full reset → Depth = 0
Phase 4b: Failure (further adverse)
SELL also moves adverse → cut loss → cumulative L₂ → bigger lot in the opposite direction... (Depth grows)
Depth 0 → 0.01 lot
Depth 1 → 0.02 lot (recover L=$15)
Depth 2 → 0.06 lot (recover L=$45)
Depth 3 → 0.18 lot (recover L=$135)
Depth 4 → 0.54 lot ← caution level
Depth 5 → 1.62 lot ← danger
Depth 6 → auto-stop
Unlike martingale × nanpin, only one position is held at a time. Margin pressure is gentler than Kamikaze/Tetsubeki, but at deeper Depth single-trade lot becomes enormous.
BACKTEST
回测结果
📊马丁加仓评估表 — GOLD_NANPIN_HEDGE_RECOVERY
生存率
0%
期间内不破产的概率
破产率
100%
账户爆仓概率
净收益达成率
47.2%
运行后净正收益概率
净损益中位数
-¥6,898
累计出金 - 本金
| 回测期间 | GOLD H1 10年データ × ランダム2年スライス × 1000回 |
| 模拟次数 | 1000 次（随机起点1年运行） |
| 生存期中位数 | 0 天 |
| 生存期 25%分位（早期爆仓组） | 0 天 |
| 累计出金中位数 | ¥0 |
| 累计出金平均值 | ¥2,088 |
| 累计出金 25%-75%区间 | ¥0 〜 ¥3,010 |
| 净损益平均值 | -¥2,736 |
马丁/网格类EA销售广告中常见的"PF 7"、"胜率92%"等炫目数值，是通过不将浮亏头寸反映在余额曲线中的展示方法制造的。本EA若用同样方法展示，也会呈现如下"最强EA"风格的炫目数值。
炫目PF
0.00
炫目胜率
97.7%
炫目DD
95%
交易数
44
📌 重要
此数值不代表实际收益。只是浮亏头寸未计入余额，实际账户时常大幅亏损。在销售广告中看到类似数值时，请立即阅读"识破炫目BT EA的5个检查点"。
真正的评估轴是上方的"破产率"和"净收益达成率" 。本EA以含浮亏的Equity为基准，Equity < 本金50%视为破产，并加入每日出金规则，估算现实期望值。
🎲 关于蒙特卡洛模拟
- 从MT5 XMTrading实际GOLD价格数据（5年）随机选择起点
- 每次模拟假设运行1年
- 每日定时按余额 − 本金的超额部分出金的规则
- Equity低于本金50%视为破产
- 净损益 = 累计出金 + 最终余额 − 投入本金
- 本数值是策略期望值的参考，不保证个别运行的损益
📝 补充
- ⚠️ 2026-05-27 再検証で旧楽観値(survival 100%/withdrawn$1170)を是正
- 1000試行すべてで口座破綻(Equity<初期5%)。CLAUDE.md 規定の「ナンピン=破産前提」を厳格反映
- 純益達成率 47.2% = 破綻前に出金できた試行は約半数、95%ileで$1,155まで回収例あり
- 投入元本$670想定、残高>$1,005で超過分を週次出金、Equity<5%で破綻扱い
- 勝率97.7%は誤解を招くため副指標 — トレード単位では勝つが「ナンピン段で破綻する」典型パターン
- 推奨運用: 失っても問題ない金額のみ投入、毎日出金推奨、ポートフォリオ<5%の資金で
📈MT5 Strategy Tester 报告 — GOLD Nanpin Hedge Recovery EA
📋 关于此报告
- MT5 策略测试器(XMTrading-MT5 服务器)生成的官方报告
- 5-10 年实际价格数据 + 全 tick(99.9% 精度)模型
- 余额曲线(蓝)/ 净值曲线(绿)可视化浮动损失
- 过去结果不保证未来利润
MONEY
资金与手数设置
💴 Capital & lot settings — HEDGE RECOVERY
⚠ 马丁加仓EA的特别警告
马丁加仓EA会在浮亏时加仓，因此账户规模越大，加仓承受能力越强。请只存入您可承受损失的资金，并每日提取利润。
Recommended minimum capital
3万円〜
≈ $200
Recommended lot settings
InitialLot = 0.01
Withdraw profits daily instead of leaving them in the account.
InitialLot=0.01、ヘッジ型のため証拠金圧迫は緩い。
SETTINGS
参数
A custom 🔄 RESET DEPTH button lets you manually reset Recovery Depth to zero. When Depth reaches 4+, judge the market and choose 'continue recovery vs. lock loss and start fresh.'
🛡 HEDGE RECOVERY - HIGH RISK
[ HEDGE_RECOV ]
Bal: 9523.45 (init 10000.00)
Pos: BUY 0.06lot @ 1992.45
PL: -$23.45
Depth: 3 / 6
CumLoss: $135.00
TP need: $158.20
| 参数 | 默认值 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|
| IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | true required (safety guard) |
| EntryMode | ENT_RSI | How the first position is triggered: oversold/overbought detection, price-band edge, or moving-average cross |
| InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot |
| HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Price distance the market must move against you before the loss is cut and recovery begins |
| RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Profit-target distance for the recovery position; set short so the loss is recovered quickly |
| RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Adds a 10% cushion to the lot needed for recovery (1.1 = 10% extra) |
| MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | How many consecutive recovery failures are allowed; the EA stops after 6 (a blow-up safeguard) |
| ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | When a recovery succeeds, reset the losing-streak count to zero and return to the starting state |
| UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | Safety switch: force-close all positions when the margin level drops below the limit |
| EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | Margin level (%) that triggers the emergency close — all positions are shut below this |
| UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | Safety switch: stop the whole EA once the losing streak reaches its limit |
| UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | Daily withdrawal alert at fixed time |
| MagicNumber | 20260808 | EA identifier |
Q & A
常见问题
Q.有指定的券商吗？▾
Q.可以在哪些货币对上运行？▾
Q.需要多少资金？▾
Q.有止损(SL)吗？▾
Q.版本升级如何反映？▾
Q.可以在模拟账户测试吗？▾
Q.微型账户可以使用吗？▾
DOWNLOAD
获取方式
This EA uses a unique logic (hedge recovery). Before downloading, make sure you understand the 'Strategy Logic' section above.
注册会员下载 →⚠️ Disclaimer
- This EA is not investment advice. Use entirely at your own risk.
- Hedge recovery logic will also mathematically blow up someday (consecutive failure probability × lot growth).
- If you don't follow daily withdrawals, profits will not be secured.
- If uneasy, choose a conservative track EA.