Why We Retracted the MEGAMAX Supremacy Claim
Contents
- What We Tried in the First Edition (Record)
- What Went Wrong
- 1. The benchmark was a product of over-optimization
- 2. "No better strategy found" only meant the benchmark was set too high
- 3. The machine learning results (AUC around 0.5) are still a valid lesson
- What We Decided After This Failure
- Current Lineup (Figures Published on This Site, as of 2026-10-11; Max DD Is Relative)
- References
[Looking Back] "No Strategy Beats MEGAMAX" Was Wrong
⚠ Fully revised on 2026-09-25: The first edition of this article (2026-05-26) positioned MEGAMAX EA as "the best" and concluded that we could not find any strategy that beat it. However, when we re-tested it in the Strategy Tester using official MT5 data, MEGAMAX EA scored PF 0.58, a win rate of 14.2%, and a max DD of 99.97% (the account was almost wiped out). Both the first edition's "PF 119.57 / win rate 94.3%" and the 5/27 corrected figures "PF 5.55 / win rate 62.4%" came from over-optimized Python backtests. MEGAMAX EA is no longer published. We have rewritten this article as a record of what went wrong.
This is the operator of fxea365.com. In the first edition we wrote that "MEGAMAX is the best solution, already found through exhaustive search" and "focus on MEGAMAX alone rather than running ten simple strategies." Since the premise has collapsed, we are retracting the conclusion as well.
What We Tried in the First Edition (Record)
In the first edition, we tried the following four approaches in search of a strategy that beat MEGAMAX.
| Attempt | What we did | First-edition conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| 1. megagrid | Searched 2,314,240 parameter combinations of Asia Range Breakout | Did not reach MEGAMAX's PF; dropped |
| 2. NY Reversal | RSI+BB mean reversion, 995,328 combinations | 1% per year on XAUUSD, also small on EURUSD; dropped |
| 3. LightGBM filter (13 features) | Predicted whether TP1 or SL would be hit first after a MEGAMAX signal | ROC-AUC 0.529, no improvement |
| 4. PyTorch MLP + LightGBM (40 features) | Tried again with three times as many features | AUC 0.489–0.545, no improvement |
The MEGAMAX figures we used as the benchmark were themselves wrong, so the comparisons in attempts 1 and 2 ("worse than MEGAMAX") no longer mean anything.
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What Went Wrong
1. The benchmark was a product of over-optimization
MEGAMAX's "PF 119.57" was a figure obtained by choosing parameters on historical data and then measuring performance on the same historical data. Measured on unseen periods or real ticks, the performance falls apart. When we re-measured it in the MT5 Strategy Tester, it came out at PF 0.58, and the version extended to nine currency pairs also scored PF 0.57–0.59 with DD of about 99.96% on every pair (details in our EA live-verification article).
2. "No better strategy found" only meant the benchmark was set too high
If the benchmark is PF 119, every sound strategy will be judged "worse." We cannot rule out that some of the strategies we dropped in attempts 1 and 2 would have held up in live trading.
3. The machine learning results (AUC around 0.5) are still a valid lesson
The result of attempts 3 and 4, "AUC 0.49–0.55 = almost the same as a coin toss," is independent of the MEGAMAX figures. The lesson that it is hard to predict whether a breakout will succeed using features built from price alone still holds.
What We Decided After This Failure
- Published figures are based on measurements from the MT5 Strategy Tester (we do not publish figures from Python backtests alone)
- Instead of concentrating on a single EA, compare several EAs with different characteristics using their published figures
- When figures in a past article fall apart, fix the body text rather than just adding a note (this revision is part of that)
Current Lineup (Figures Published on This Site, as of 2026-10-11; Max DD Is Relative)
| EA | Symbol/TF | PF | Max DD | Trades | Test period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DONCHIAN ENGINE | USDJPY H1 | 1.50 | 10.8% | 631 | 9.4 years |
| GOLD VIPER | XAUUSD M30 | 1.64 | 30.3% | 10,340 | 7.7 years |
| BITCOIN COMET | BTCUSD H4 | 1.72 | 31.2% | 775 | 8 years |
| MEGAMAX DONCHIAN (EURJPY) | EURJPY H1 | 1.51 | 33.3% | 571 | 9.4 years |
Note: Despite the similar name, MEGAMAX DONCHIAN is a different EA (a Donchian breakout) from the MEGAMAX EA discussed in this article. Test periods and conditions differ between EAs, so the figures cannot be compared directly. Check the latest figures in the EA list & ranking. Backtests do not guarantee future profits.
→ EA list & ranking / Forward test
References
- Eugene Fama (1970) "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work"
- Dukascopy Historical Data (M5, 2016-2026)
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Right after you sign up, you get a download link for a subscriber-only pack of our 13 MT5 indicators: compiled files (.ex5), source code and a setup guide. Then 8 emails on algo-trading essentials, reading backtests correctly and choosing a broker (one a day for the first 5 days, then 7, 14 and 30 days after signing up). You also get notified before each price rise of the versions sold on the MQL5 Market (launch pricing that steps up as copies sell). Our EAs are free on this site with a live account at a partner broker.
* Privacy strictly protected. You can unsubscribe at any time.
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