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⚠️ 破産前提EA — 1000試行 MC で破綻率 100%
2026-05-27 の再モンテカルロ(10年データ × 2年スライス × 1000試行)で、すべての試行で口座が破綻(Equity<初期5%)しました。 ただし純益達成率（破綻前に出金できた試行）は 47.2%、95%ile で $1,155 まで出金例があります。「失っても問題ない金額」のみ投入し、毎日出金推奨。CLAUDE.md 規定の「ナンピンEAは破産前提」を厳密に反映した値です。
🛡 GOLD Hedge Recovery Nanpin
Cut loss → opposite-direction lot growth → net-loss recovery | Expected survival 4-8 months
破産率
100%
純益達成率
47.2%
平均出金
$290
ABOUT
Ikhtisar Strategi
📋Operating Rules (Mandatory)
- Only deposit money you can afford to lose (≤5% of total capital)
- Always withdraw on the 06:00 daily alert (otherwise it vanishes)
- Check Recovery Depth daily — shown in GUI. ≥3 = caution; ≥5 = consider manual PANIC CLOSE
- Auto-stops when MaxRecoveryDepth=6 is exceeded — judge remaining positions manually
- If cumulative loss (CumLoss) exceeds 30% of initial balance, exit manually — continuing recovery risks more loss
- Never say 'one more and I'll recover' — statistically, deeper depth = higher next-failure probability
📐 Strategy Logic — different from Kamikaze/Tetsubeki: 'Recovery type'
Whereas Kamikaze/Tetsubeki 'average down to lower break-even, then take profit on a small bounce', Hedge Recovery uses 'when adverse, cut the loss → recover in the opposite direction' — a unique logic.
Phase 1: Initial entry
Example: BUY 0.01 lot @ $2000
Phase 2: Price moves against → cut loss
$2000 → $1985 (1500pt adverse) → close BUY at $15 loss (L=$15)
Phase 3: Opposite-direction recovery
Simultaneously enter SELL 0.02 lot @ $1985 (lot sized to recover L=$15 over a 750pt move)
Phase 4a: Success
SELL moves 750pt in favor → full reset → Depth = 0
Phase 4b: Failure (further adverse)
SELL also moves adverse → cut loss → cumulative L₂ → bigger lot in the opposite direction... (Depth grows)
Depth 0 → 0.01 lot
Depth 1 → 0.02 lot (recover L=$15)
Depth 2 → 0.06 lot (recover L=$45)
Depth 3 → 0.18 lot (recover L=$135)
Depth 4 → 0.54 lot ← caution level
Depth 5 → 1.62 lot ← danger
Depth 6 → auto-stop
Unlike martingale × nanpin, only one position is held at a time. Margin pressure is gentler than Kamikaze/Tetsubeki, but at deeper Depth single-trade lot becomes enormous.
BACKTEST
Hasil Backtest
📊Lembar Evaluasi Nanpin — GOLD_NANPIN_HEDGE_RECOVERY
Tingkat Survival
0%
Probabilitas tidak runtuh dalam periode
Tingkat Kebangkrutan
100%
Probabilitas akun meledak
Tingkat Bersih Positif
47.2%
Probabilitas positif setelah dijalankan
PnL Bersih Median
-$958
Penarikan kum. - modal
| Periode Backtest | GOLD H1 10年データ × ランダム2年スライス × 1000回 |
| Run Simulasi | 1000 run (awal acak, operasi 1 tahun) |
| Periode Survival Median | 0 hari |
| Survival persentil ke-25 (kelompok kebangkrutan dini) | 0 hari |
| Penarikan Kumulatif (Median) | $0 |
| Penarikan Kumulatif (Rata-rata) | $290 |
| Penarikan Kumulatif (Rentang 25%-75%) | $0 〜 $418 |
| PnL Bersih (Rata-rata) | -$380 |
Angka mencolok seperti "PF 7" dan "Win Rate 92%" yang sering terlihat di iklan penjualan EA nanpin/grid diproduksi dengan tidak merefleksikan posisi rugi mengambang di kurva saldo. Jika EA ini ditampilkan dengan cara yang sama, akan menampilkan angka pajangan gaya "EA terkuat" seperti di bawah.
PF Pajangan
0.00
Win Rate Pajangan
97.7%
DD Pajangan
95%
Transaksi
44
📌 Penting
Angka-angka ini tidak mewakili profitabilitas nyata.Posisi rugi mengambang hanya dikecualikan dari saldo, tetapi akun aktual kadang-kadang sangat negatif. Jika Anda melihat angka serupa di iklan penjualan, segera baca"5 Checkpoint untuk Mengenali EA dengan BT Mencolok".
Sumbu evaluasi nyata adalah "Tingkat Kebangkrutan" dan "Tingkat Bersih Positif" di atas . EA ini memperlakukan Equity (termasuk rugi mengambang) sebagai dasar, menganggap kebangkrutan saat Equity < 50% modal, dan mengestimasi ekspektasi realistis termasuk aturan penarikan harian.
🎲 Tentang Simulasi Monte Carlo
- Titik awal acak dipilih dari data harga GOLD aktual MT5 XMTrading (5 tahun)
- Setiap simulasi mengasumsikan 1 tahun operasi
- Aturan penarikan harian: kelebihan saldo − modal ditarik pada waktu tetap
- Jika Equity turun di bawah 50% modal, diperlakukan sebagai kebangkrutan
- PnL Bersih = penarikan kumulatif + saldo akhir − modal awal
- Angka-angka ini adalah pedoman untuk ekspektasi strategi dan tidak menjamin hasil operasi individu
📝 Catatan
- ⚠️ 2026-05-27 再検証で旧楽観値(survival 100%/withdrawn$1170)を是正
- 1000試行すべてで口座破綻(Equity<初期5%)。CLAUDE.md 規定の「ナンピン=破産前提」を厳格反映
- 純益達成率 47.2% = 破綻前に出金できた試行は約半数、95%ileで$1,155まで回収例あり
- 投入元本$670想定、残高>$1,005で超過分を週次出金、Equity<5%で破綻扱い
- 勝率97.7%は誤解を招くため副指標 — トレード単位では勝つが「ナンピン段で破綻する」典型パターン
- 推奨運用: 失っても問題ない金額のみ投入、毎日出金推奨、ポートフォリオ<5%の資金で
📈Laporan MT5 Strategy Tester — GOLD Nanpin Hedge Recovery EA
📋 Tentang laporan ini
- Laporan resmi MT5 Strategy Tester (server XMTrading-MT5)
- 5-10 tahun data harga nyata + model every tick (akurasi 99.9%)
- Kurva saldo (biru) / Equity (hijau) menampilkan kerugian mengambang
- Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin keuntungan masa depan
MONEY
Modal & Pengaturan Lot
💴 Capital & lot settings — HEDGE RECOVERY
⚠ Peringatan Khusus EA Martingale (Nanpin)
EA Nanpin melakukan averaging-down pada posisi rugi, jadi semakin besar akun semakin tinggi toleransi nanpin. Setor hanya yang sanggup Anda hilangkan, dan tarik keuntungan setiap hari.
Recommended minimum capital
3万円〜
≈ $200
Recommended lot settings
InitialLot = 0.01
Withdraw profits daily instead of leaving them in the account.
InitialLot=0.01、ヘッジ型のため証拠金圧迫は緩い。
SETTINGS
Parameter
A custom 🔄 RESET DEPTH button lets you manually reset Recovery Depth to zero. When Depth reaches 4+, judge the market and choose 'continue recovery vs. lock loss and start fresh.'
🛡 HEDGE RECOVERY - HIGH RISK
[ HEDGE_RECOV ]
Bal: 9523.45 (init 10000.00)
Pos: BUY 0.06lot @ 1992.45
PL: -$23.45
Depth: 3 / 6
CumLoss: $135.00
TP need: $158.20
| Parameter | Default | Deskripsi |
|---|---|---|
| IAcceptBankruptcyRisk | false | true required (safety guard) |
| EntryMode | ENT_RSI | How the first position is triggered: oversold/overbought detection, price-band edge, or moving-average cross |
| InitialLot | 0.01 | Initial lot |
| HedgeDistancePoints | 1500 | Price distance the market must move against you before the loss is cut and recovery begins |
| RecoveryTPDistancePoints | 750 | Profit-target distance for the recovery position; set short so the loss is recovered quickly |
| RecoveryLotSafetyMargin | 1.1 | Adds a 10% cushion to the lot needed for recovery (1.1 = 10% extra) |
| MaxRecoveryDepth | 6 | How many consecutive recovery failures are allowed; the EA stops after 6 (a blow-up safeguard) |
| ResetOnRecoverySuccess | true | When a recovery succeeds, reset the losing-streak count to zero and return to the starting state |
| UseMarginEmergencyClose | true | Safety switch: force-close all positions when the margin level drops below the limit |
| EmergencyMarginLevel | 200.0 | Margin level (%) that triggers the emergency close — all positions are shut below this |
| UseMaxDepthEmergency | true | Safety switch: stop the whole EA once the losing streak reaches its limit |
| UseDailyWithdrawAlert | true | Daily withdrawal alert at fixed time |
| MagicNumber | 20260808 | EA identifier |
Q & A
Pertanyaan Umum
Q.Apakah perlu broker tertentu?▾
Q.Pada pasangan mata uang apa bisa dijalankan?▾
Q.Berapa modal yang dibutuhkan?▾
Q.Apakah ada stop-loss?▾
Q.Bagaimana pembaruan versi diterapkan?▾
Q.Bisakah diuji di akun demo?▾
Q.Bisakah pakai akun mikro?▾
DOWNLOAD
Cara Mendapatkan
This EA uses a unique logic (hedge recovery). Before downloading, make sure you understand the 'Strategy Logic' section above.
Daftar untuk mengunduh →⚠️ Disclaimer
- This EA is not investment advice. Use entirely at your own risk.
- Hedge recovery logic will also mathematically blow up someday (consecutive failure probability × lot growth).
- If you don't follow daily withdrawals, profits will not be secured.
- If uneasy, choose a conservative track EA.